The Houston Texans have spent three weeks chasing the kind of finish that can change a season. Their latest loss, a 19-17 setback against Indianapolis, came down to only two points. Now the 0-3 Texans return to Reliant Stadium on Sunday with a chance to turn close calls into a breakthrough against the 1-2 Dallas Cowboys.

This game has the feel of a Texas showdown with two teams carrying different kinds of pressure. Houston won 12 games last season and reached the Divisional Round, the second round of the playoffs, for the third straight year. Dallas missed the playoffs despite having a powerful offense. Both teams believe they should be higher in the standings, so Week 4 offers a chance to grab momentum before the season speeds ahead.

Houston’s path starts with C.J. Stroud. The quarterback has thrown for 794 yards in three games, showing he can still push the ball downfield. But the Texans have scored only 18 points per game, so their big challenge is turning long drives into touchdowns. David Montgomery can help. He runs with force, keeps his legs moving through tackles, and already has scored three total touchdowns. If Montgomery can make Dallas respect the run, Stroud may find more room for passes to Nico Collins and tight end Dalton Schultz.

Collins is a key name to watch because he is dealing with a hamstring injury after limited practice. At 6-foot-4, he gives Stroud a big target on deep throws and difficult catches. If he cannot play at full strength, Houston will need other receivers to step into a larger role. The Texans also have injury questions on defense, where edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. was limited with an ankle issue and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is doubtful.

That matters because Dallas arrives with playmakers everywhere. CeeDee Lamb has caught 20 passes for 309 yards and three touchdowns. He can turn a short catch into a long run by slipping past defenders in the open field. Across from him, George Pickens brings speed and strong hands, giving quarterback Dak Prescott two dangerous choices outside. Jake Ferguson can then work in the middle when defenders spread out to stop the wide receivers.

Javonte Williams makes the Cowboys harder to predict. He has rushed for 169 yards and scored three total touchdowns, running with the power to earn tough yards near the goal line. Dallas is scoring more than 29 points per game, but its defense has allowed more than 27. The Cowboys gave up 34 points in last week’s close loss to Baltimore, and their defense must find a way to slow Stroud before Houston gets comfortable.

Houston’s defense allowed far fewer yards than any other team last season, and players such as Anderson, Danielle Hunter, Derek Stingley Jr., and Kamari Lassiter helped make passing difficult. Yet the Texans must overcome their early injuries and find more scoring punch. Dallas has also lost key defenders, while safety Malik Hooker is questionable and cornerback Cobie Durant is doubtful.

Expect Houston to fight hard at home and lean on Montgomery to control the game. Still, Dallas has shown a stronger scoring attack through three weeks, and Lamb gives Prescott the game-breaking target Houston may struggle to contain. Prediction: the Cowboys win.

CeeDee Lamb and the Cowboys Bring a Fast Challenge to Houston