Arrowhead Stadium will be loud on Sunday afternoon, but the biggest question may be calm: Can Geno Smith lead the Jets through one of the NFL’s toughest places to play? Smith and New York arrive after three straight close losses, including a 38-33 battle with Las Vegas. Kansas City, meanwhile, is trying to stop a two-game slide after a 5-2 start. This Week 9 meeting gives both teams a chance to change the next chapter of their season.

The Chiefs have a familiar hero at the center of that chapter. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 12 touchdown passes in seven games as he leads Kansas City’s comeback from last year’s 6-11 finish. He can fire a quick pass, escape pressure, or find a target when a play seems finished. His favorite veteran target, Travis Kelce, uses smart routes and strong hands to find open grass, though Kelce is working through an ankle issue. Rashee Rice is also limited in practice with hamstring and knee concerns. If those pass catchers play, Mahomes will have more ways to challenge the Jets.

Kansas City also has a powerful new engine in Kenneth Walker III. Walker has rushed for 770 yards and six touchdowns already, showing why defenses must watch every cut he makes. The Chiefs gain 383 yards per game, far more than the Jets’ 320, because Walker gives Mahomes room to create. New York has allowed nearly 24 points per game, so stopping the run early is vital. If the Jets let Walker build speed, the Chiefs can control the clock and make every pass more dangerous.

Still, the Jets bring their own hard-to-handle pair. Smith has thrown 12 touchdown passes with only three interceptions, and Garrett Wilson has caught 43 passes for 527 yards. Wilson’s sharp routes give Smith a dependable target, but Wilson is in concussion protocol and remains day-to-day. His status matters greatly. In last week’s narrow loss, Smith connected on deep throws and drove the offense late, yet New York could not finish its final chance.

Breece Hall could add another spark if his quadriceps allows him to play. Hall is limited in practice, and the Jets need his burst as a runner and receiver. Without him, New York may lean even harder on Smith and Wilson against a Chiefs defense that allows only 18.7 points per game. Kansas City’s defense has kept games close even when its offense has struggled, and its five extra takeaways this season show a group that can seize key moments.

The Jets must protect Smith, run with purpose, and finish drives in the end zone instead of settling for kicks. The Chiefs must shake off their recent losses and avoid letting New York’s passing game find an early rhythm. Smith’s return to the team that drafted him makes the setting even more meaningful, but Mahomes has the deeper lineup, the stronger defense, and home-field energy behind him.

Prediction: The Chiefs will win, using Walker’s running and Mahomes’ playmaking to steady their season at Arrowhead.

Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith Bring Different Comeback Paths to Arrowhead